The manufacturing industry has shown signs of recovery in many countries: in China industrial output registered an upward trend, with a 6.9% advance in the month of September compared to the corresponding period in 2019, and the GDP in the third quarter grew by 4.9% on an annual basis, spurred by both increased output and consumer spending and a stronger performance on the part of the service sector.
It is important to note that the Container Throughput Index rose to 116.1 in the month of August (115.2 in July), whilst exports spiked to 9.9%, compared to 9.5% in August and 7.2% in July (General Administration of Customs). The United States, where from February to April output dropped by -16.5%, reports a slow economic recovery since May, as per certain eurozone countries. In particular, in Italy, where industrial production is picking up, alongside encouraging signs in terms of increased orders and exports.
Nevertheless, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, international trade has shrunk considerably, with a further 4.5% drop on an annual basis reported in the third quarter of 2020. UNCTAD forecasts point to a 20% plunge in international trade in 2020. Instead the OMC outlook indicates a 9.2% slowdown this year, with an acceleration of +7.2% in 2021. In addition, further lockdowns may lead to a 2-3 percent decrease in the economic growth forecast, reducing the global international trade expansion rate to +4% for 2021.
Within this framework, total cargo throughput handled by the Western Ligurian Sea Port Authority ports fell by 16.6%, reporting a total of 41,238,318 tons in the first nine months of 2020 (- 8,218,212 tons compared to the previous year), spurred by the negative trends registered in April and May (a -16.5% fall on the first six months of 2019 with a decrease of 5.5 million tons), and in July and September which recorded a drop of approximately 3 million tons on the third quarter of 2019.
More information:
