According to JOC, volumes on the Asia-Europe trade are rapidly improving and bouncing back from the lows seen in April during the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns
This is the last issue of our COVID-19 Update. We will come back soon with new formats to keep you connected with the Ports of Genoa. Container Trade Scenario Asia-Europe trade . Asia to Europe container volume in June was 1.39 million TEU, down just 3.8 p...Covid-19 Bulletin
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The Coronavirus 2019 pandemic has heavily affected cruise operations in the European Union and globally, thus the restart has to be gradual. Operators need to ensure that cruise trips do not expose passengers and staff to high health risks.
Container Shipping Despite less vessel calls than before the COVID-19 pandemic started, cargo volumes are returning in some regions. Generalised lockdowns now limited, the return of vessels and the lower numbers of blank sailings continue, yet these happen at a slow pace
China’s economy grew strongly in the second quarter, in fact after having fallen at the fastest pace on record in Q1, real GDP increased by 11.5% from the first quarter, which translates to an annualized rate of 54.6%. It was up 3.2% from a year earlier
According to Bollorè Logistics Covid-19 Market Outlook, world trade is set to plummet up to 32% in 2020. Nearly all regions will suffer double-digit declines, with exports from North America and Asia hit hardest. Trade will likely fall steeper in sectors with complex value chains, particularly electronics and automotive products
According to CLIA, each day of total shutdown of cruise activities leads to a loss of 2,500 jobs in the world, each drop of one percentage point of passengers per year represents 9,100 fewer workers in the sector. Halting European cruises to the end of July will lead to 133,500 fewer jobs, corresponding to 4.81 billion of unpaid wages
UNCTAD reports that the value of international trade in goods has declined by about 5 percent in Q1 2020 and is expected to decline further by 27 percent in Q2 2020, though the pace of contraction has slowed in May
UNCTAD reports that the value of international trade in goods has declined by about 5 percent in Q1 2020 and is expected to decline further by 27 percent in Q2 2020, though the pace of contraction has slowed in May
The OECD in its latest Economic Outlook reveals the projected impact the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global GDP in 2020
According to JOC, container carriers do not expect a significant market recovery in the coming months, thus they are extending their capacity reduction programs in the third quarter
Although the May PMI figures for a swathe of advanced economies are still well below the 50-no change level, we are cautiously optimistic that output will stage a modest rebound this month
Ports are wounded but still alive and open for business
Based on IMF alternative GDP scenarios, Drewry depicted world port handling forecast. According to the British researchers, economic damage is skewed towards western countries, but most regions will face reduced container volumes
According to IHS Markit, the European PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) fell from 26.4 in March to 12.0 in April. Not surprisingly, the decline was most severe in those countries with the greatest outbreak of the COVID-19. Thus, the PMI fell to 9.2 in Spain, 10.9 in Italy, 11.1 in France, and 17.4 in Germany. These numbers shows that Europe’s economy effectively collapsed in April
According to UK based analysts Oxford Economics, the pandemic will have a huge impact on world trade. Steep falls in industrial output will hit trade in goods hard, while the unusually service-driven nature of the emergent recession also means services trade will plummet
The International Transport Forum claims that, as a result of Covid-19, global container trade volumes declined by 8.6% in February 2020 and the reduction is likely to be larger in the following months
Tourism is one of the most affected sectors of the pandemic, in particular hospitality, aviation and cruises, are at greater risk and, according to the epidemiologist Penn State Maciej Boni, we will not return to travel before one year
In the first quarter of this year, whilst the overall cargo throughput of major Chinese coastal ports declined 3.5%, according to the statistics released by China Ports & Harbors Association, the eight major Chinese ports reached a throughput of 37.63 million TEU container in Q1, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year
IMF claims that China’s economy, though affected by the effects of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to see a recovery in the second quarter of the year thanks to the firms re- opening and the return of employees to work in March
According to the new IAPH COVID-19 Survey, from the ports viewpoint, the global maritime transport scenario shows a clear deterioration compared to the previous weeks
UK-headquartered global analysts Oxford Economics released an in-depth analysis of the global economic momentum. In response to the first signs of successful coronavirus containment, some governments begin to explore lifting lockdown restrictions. Still, the latest economic data confirm that the economic costs of shutdowns are and will be significant
SPI's Geoeconomics report claims that the international logistics chain will be severely affected by the effects of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, estimated by IMF in a 3% global GDP contraction in 2020 and by WTO in a 32% collapse in world trade
The latest World Economic Outlook projects the global economy to contract by -3% in 2020, an outcome far worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis, however in an optimistic scenario, it is forecasted to grow by 5.8% in 2021 when economic activities normalize helped by policy supports.
WTO claims even the most optimistic scenario for 2020 is that trade would shrink by 13%, a bigger drop than in the 2008-09 recession and it warns there is the risk of a much gloomier outcome under which trade would shrink by 32%, on a par with the reduction seen between 1929 and 1932, if protectionist measures should be imposed by developed countries.
According to Oxford Economics, signs are emerging that epidemic control measures are working, nevertheless global economic costs will be significant: China could see a double-digit fall in GDP in Q1 and any rebound in China in Q2 will be swamped by slumping activity in the US and Europe. Global GDP is expected to rebound sharply in Q2, although the contraction through all of 2020 may surpass the -1.1% drop recorded during the 2009 the global financial crisis
Rail freight transport in Europe does not seem to be affected for the moment by the measures to contain the coronavirus epidemic implemented by several countries
Trends Analysts continue to monitor the effects on the global economy due to the COVID pandemic effects. Public health response to the spread of the virus in each country should work within two-to-three months, with economic recovery by the third quarter of 2020 for the US, the fourth quarter of 2020 for China and the first quarter of 2021 for the Eurozone
The economic impact of the Covid-19 public health emergency, as it ripples across the entire planet, is set to become an important test for globalisation